Indian students in tertiary institutions abroad number only a fraction of Chinese students: 5.9 percent compared to China’s 17 percent in 2016.
Both countries led the first of the “three waves of international student mobility” (a ‘wave’ indicates key events impacting mobility directions) as described by study author Rahul Choudaha, though most enrolments were at the Master’s and doctoral level. Taking place between 2001 to 2008, this wave was mostly shaped by the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Following the financial recession of 2018, another wave was initiated.
“US universities become proactive with recruitment as reflected by the “debate” about the use of commission-based recruitment and launch of first pathway program,” said the report.
At the same time, “the rapid expansion of Chinese upper-middle class fuels the growth momentum at the undergraduate level while Indian students continue to enroll at master’s level.”
By 2010, China became the top source country for international students at US colleges and universities, according to IIE Open Doors data. In 2016, the total number of Chinese students abroad was 866,072, with an estimated direct economic impact of US$23.76 million.
While the tuition they paid became a lifeline for many universities in the US, UK, Canada and Australia, analysts have warned of the lack of diversity this brought to their campuses.
The Indian contingent showed slower, but steady growth in the US, increasing 90 percent from 103,260 in 2008-09 to 196,271 in 2017-18, according to IIE Open Doors data.
In the coming third wave of international student mobility, from the year 2016 and beyond, Indian students, as well as their Nigerian and Vietnamese counterparts, will likely drive the demand in growth.
But since this period is characterized by the new political order of anti-immigrant policies, the US and UK are likely to experience stagnant growth or even declining enrolment “due to increasingly restrictive immigration policies and uncertainty”.
“Political and economic turbulence in the Continental Europe trigger diverse policy questions related to tuition, housing, and stay rate,” wrote the report.
Meanwhile, Canada and Australia will likely have to “assess and reflect on the concerns of sustainability of growth and over-reliance on few countries”.
